Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda...

The Raiders did crush the horrible Chiefs again today, just as the Chargers did two weeks ago, and the AFC West is not sending its best team to the playoffs. The Chiefs did try their best and came up way short, even if the playoffs had been on the line, I don't think the outcome would have been different. So...the Chargers can go into this offseason with the knowledge that had they been able to eek out a win against the woeful Bengals, they would have been in.

On the Chargers' scrimmage today in Denver, I think we found out that while Tim Tebow is a dynamic player, he still isn't a true NFL quarterback. He is inaccurate and telegraphs many of his passes. He can run, but judging by the number of times he got his bell rung today, that style won't last too long in the NFL.

We also did get to see the skills of Ryan Mathews on full display. The guy can break tackles and run. He showed flashes of improvement in reading his blocks and finding holes. He is still a fumbler though. I hope he spends all offseason with a football in his hands. If he can correct that one glaring problem, he will be great.

We also witnessed special teams coach Steve Crosby's retirement party. With another kickoff return for a touchdown, if they don't fire this guy, fans will (and should) dump all their season tickets for next year. The thing has to be fixed. Bring in a young, talented and hungry coach who can get the special teams fired up and playing at a high level. This used to be a major strength of this team.

Keep checking in this offseason. I'll keep the posts coming. Happy New Year to all Bolts' fans!

More Pre-Season Instead of Post-Season

Because the Chargers' post season hopes have been dashed, the final regular season game of the 2010 Chargers resembles a pre-season game more than anything else. With Mike Tolbert out, the most interesting aspect of this game will be in seeing how Ryan Mathews looks as "the guy" over the course of a whole game.

I think he will develop, barring injury, into a great back and worthy replacement of LT. He needs to develop his pass catching skills, patience, pass blocking, and his NFL field awareness for finding holes. He also needs to learn when to go down instead of contorting his body, taking extra hits, and risking fumbles in getting just one more inch in the grasp of three defenders. Greats like LT and Marcus Allen chose their battles wisely and took what defenses gave them. A big opportunity and step in this process begins today. If Mathews can become that great back, this team's fortunes will be much improved next year.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers will find out if they should be worried about Heisman great Tim Tebow being at the helm of a division rival for years to come. In a comeback victory last week, pundits and retired coaches trumpeted that "this guy is just a winner." I think Tebow simply doesn't have, and won't develop, the very specialized skill an NFL quarterback needs in reading complex defenses on fly and delivering the ball to the open receiver. Being a big strong runner will help for awhile, but the NFL will wear him down, hurt him, and force him to become an effective passer.

It will be interesting to see how the Chargers deal with him today. Some big hits and a crushing defeat of Tebow would send a big message to the Broncos that they need to return to the drawing board in finding a franchise quarterback as well as a new coaching staff.

The Chargers have been talking this week of "finishing strong" and "playing for pride." I'm a little skeptical and worried about this as they didn't show much pride or strength in finishing the game last week. Their number one defense seemed to fold after the Bengals went up by two scores in the second half. Whatever the outcome today, AJ Smith will have to address some serious character and toughness issues on this team for next season.

Season-Ending Pall

As Mike Tolbert lay face down on the field barely moving, a pall was cast over this Chargers' team and season. The best news after the game is that he seems to be alright after a scary fall that reminds everyone that even the toughest have their limits.

The Chargers reached their limit Sunday afternoon in a game that showed they had not conquered their early season problems. Playing in an unfocused and uninspired haze, this team does not have the fire, leadership and perspective to properly prepare for every game and play football with passion and a determination to win. The blame here lies with the coaches, players, and AJ Smith.

This team was not prepared to play at a high level early in the season nor were they consistent throughout the season. The blame here can fall most directly on Norv's shoulders. A coach needs to have a strong sense of how well his team will perform in real game conditions based on what goes on in practice. Norv has seemed a bit out of touch with reality this year in thinking this team was going to be one of the best ever in San Diego. The injury excuse has been trotted out time and again, but that seems invalid to me as these problems were evident in the very first game when injuries were not a factor.

In yesterday's game, Norv's call of a reverse on the first play from scrimmage with the Chargers on their own twenty yard-line showed a lack of trust in his team's ability start fast with its standard offense. Most coaches would save that type of play for mid-field situations so that a fumble or large loss wouldn't put the team back at it's own goal-line. The fumble in the exchange between Tolbert and Jackson set the tone for this game, but a team full of players with more heart and faith would have been able to come back from this mistake.

Randy McMichael was quoted in the U-T saying that from the beginning it like "it just wasn't our day." A team with great players and leaders would find a way to make their day. This game, as has already been said many times before, illustrated a microcosm of the season. Lack of preparation, leadership and experience led to terrible in game mistakes; the same qualities led to an inability to recover from these mistakes. This team too often wilted, instead of responded to, pressure.

AJ Smith is at fault here in that he needs to find players with more character. It's fine to draft nice "community" guys who aren't going to get DUI's or weapons possession charges, but a team also needs guys that refuse to lose. It seems right now, despite all its talent, the team hasn't acquired enough of the latter. AJ can rectify some of this, but Norv also has to inspire the players never to give up, prepare for every game properly, and to dominate teams they are superior to. He hasn't done that enough this year.

There are a lot of fans, as expected, calling for the firing of Norv and AJ, but I think things are still salvageable with this group and franchise. Norv will have to reconsider some his coaching practices. AJ will have to show a greater sense of urgency and less complacency in building a team that can challenge for the Super Bowl next year. As safe as their jobs are for 2011, another season out of the playoffs and all bets are off. Even in the midst of mourning this season, I'm hopeful for the next.

Chiefs Need a Loss; Chargers Need a Win

As I said in my last post, the more interesting game for Charger fans today should be Tennessee vs. Kansas City. The Chargers are playing well, have had some extra rest, and should get a win against an inferior Bengals team that may be playing for a first-round draft pick more than anything else.

Cincinnati did win last wee though, and looking at their stats, they fall in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive categories. They, like the Chargers have had a lot of adversity this season and have found ways to lose with ill timed turnovers and special teams issues. They had a strong performance in beating the Browns last week. If San Diego isn't on, or has a Christmas hangover (they were flying out yesterday afternoon instead of Friday as they usually do so players could have time with families), or don't handle the cold, or overlook these guys in any way, the Bengals could rise up and beat them, virtually ending the season for the Chargers.

With T.O. out and Ochocinco hurting, San Diego should be able to cover their receivers one-on -one and stack the box against bruising running back Cedric Benson, forcing Carson Palmer into third and long situations in which he's given up the ball almost more than any other starting quarterback this season (18 INT's). The Chargers should be able to pressure him enough to get him fantasizing about returning to his offseason home on the beaches of Del Mar and getting out of the frozen nightmare of Cincinnati.

It will be a testament to Norv and the maturity and leadership on this team if San Diego puts in another strong performance today. If they don't? We can speculate about the holes on this team, in personnel, leadership, and coaching that led to the downfall of this season.

In the game that seems even more up in the air in Kansas City, the Titans are holding out on slim playoff hopes in their division. At 6-8 they would need both the Colts and Jaguars to lose out and win out themselves to have a chance. Tennessee is near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive categories, suggesting they may be worse than their mediocre record implies.

However, they are coming off of a strong performance last week and one could argue (hope?) that quarterback Kerry Collins is shaking off the rust after Vince Young started most of the season. If nothing else, the Titans are a tough team that gets a lot of sacks and prides itself on stopping the run. This could be the perfect combination for stopping the Chiefs. Chris Johnson, though not having a superhuman season like he has the last couple years, is still a great back and also had a strong game last week. If the Titans come to play, they should be right in this down to the end. The Chiefs just aren't that good.

Chargers 27, Bengals 13

Titans 17, Chiefs 13

Holiday Uncertainty

With the Chiefs, Ravens and Jets all winning last weekend, Charger fans must confront the fateful possibility that that San Diego could win out after stomping on division leading Kansas City and still not make the playoffs. Matt Cassel's triumphant return, displaying no ill effects from his appendectomy in beating the Rams in St. Louis should make San Diego nervous. With the Chargers' final games coming against the Bengals and Broncos, games the Chargers should win if they continue to play anywhere near the level they have the last two weeks, in a sense all the drama of this season has shifted to the Chiefs.

Kansas City has two home games remaining against the Titans and the Raiders. Both opponents are coming off fairly strong wins last week and are nursing slim playoff hopes. The Chiefs will be favored in both games, but I think there is a strong possibility they will drop one, if not both. A statistical analysis put out through AP gave the Chiefs an 86% chance of winning the division and the Chargers an 11% chance. Perhaps I'm a bit of a homer, but I'd put the odds at closer to 50-50 with a slight edge going to San Diego.

While the Chiefs are no longer horrible, the Chargers exposed some serious flaws in this team (with or without Cassel). The Kansas City defense is not great and its offensive line isn't going to run over anyone. If an opponent can contain the speed of Jamaal Charles and not make any big mistakes, Kansas City will be incapable of running away with, or dominating any game. This is why both the Titans and Raiders figure to be in their respective games down to the wire in Kansas City the next two weeks. I will be surprised if this Chiefs team can hold it together against the pressure for two games. They definitely fell apart in San Diego. Coming back strongly last week against St. Louis showed some fight and confidence, but the Rams are also a young team struggling with confidence issues and a rookie quarterback in Sam Bradford who admittedly had a bad game.

So in the next to weeks, perhaps Charger fans should pay more attention to what's going on in Kansas City than in Cincinnati or Denver. Fingers remain crossed.

Doubts in Chiefsville

The Chargers not only beat the Chiefs, they destroyed them today in a game that should plant deep seeds of doubt in the minds of this young first-place team. The Chiefs, without Cassel, are worse than we thought they were. The Chargers, as I noted in my previous posts, ran into the perfect storm against Oakland last week and are better than we thought they were.

This game displayed energized offensive and defensive lines that dominated from start to finish. Garay owned the Chiefs interior early in the game, sapping their confidence and setting up the early lead that Kansas City would never recover from with Coryle at quarterback.

Croyle just doesn't have the accuracy, timing, or pocket presence to replace Cassel. If Cassel can't go again next week, I can't see how the Chiefs can win on the road in St. Louis. By winning in the way they did, the Chargers may have created fissures in the Chief's confidence that will cause them to crumble down the stretch.

The game ball for this one should go to both Jammer and Cason who completely shut down Bowe and the rest of the Cheifs' receivers. I don't think either guy could have played better.

On the offensive side, Sproles looked like a new man after his concussion last week, aggressively attacking holes and getting up field without too much dancing around. Tolbert showed his great footwork for a big man, cutting back and twisting through holes that looked too small for his large frame. Ryan Matthews again showed flashes of what he could become. Each game he gets more reps and works on his field vision, the more dangerous he becomes. If the Chargers do make the playoffs he could be real dangerous down the stretch.

Lastly, all the fans that thought VJ was "over" San Diego were proved wrong today. The guy played and made a difference. He's going to help Phillip Rivers run the table and give this season new life.

Looking ahead, Thursday's game against the 49ers is a scary one. The Niners are the type of physical and aggressive team that gives San Diego problems. The fact that the Chargers seemed to avoid major injuries today is a huge plus. The Niners just put a shellacking on the Seahawks though and might be playing for coach Mike Singletary's job. San Diego will have to strap in on and make sure they don't overlook these guys like they did that other team form across the bay.

Must Win...Really

Today's game against the Kansas City Chiefs is one of those franchise defining moments. Win, and the Chiefs' division lead suddenly isn't so solid with starting QB Matt Cassel likely hurting for the next couple weeks. Lose, and Chargers' season is over. Fans will start with the "AJ is a fraud" calls, "fire Norv", evolving into the "let them move to LA anyway" nuclear option.

This game means everything.

As I said in my last post, I think last week's game was a bit of a perfect storm for the Chargers unlikely to be repeated this week. The Raiders ran all over the Chargers and the Chiefs are coming to town with the NFL's number one rushing attack, but the Raiders' particular brand of power running exposes the Chargers' weaknesses directly. The Chiefs, on the other hand, rely a bit more on speed than power. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are great backs, but they usually don't run people over. The Chargers undersized safeties and quick linebackers should be able to bring them down.

The Chargers' defensive line will be the key this week. Antonio Garay hurt his ankle in last week's game and returned to action but seemed ineffective. Can he play at a high level this week? In the first match-up he dominated Chiefs center Casey Whigham. At the defensive ends, Jacques Cesaire and Luis Castillo were consistently controlled. Those two have to rebound. If they don't and the Chargers lose? Don't expect them to be around next season. Either way, defensive end will have to be a point of focus this offseason.

On offense, I expect Rivers to rebound. The guy is just too good to hold down two weeks in a row. If Vincent Jackson doesn't get a hang-nail, he should help the Chargers stretch the defense for other receivers to get open if nothing else. The Chargers also need step up and run the ball. This may be Ryan Mathews' only chance to show his rookie season wasn't a bust. The Chiefs defense has been good, but they're not as stout and strong as the Raiders were last week. The Chargers, if properly motivated can go toe-to-toe with these guys and push them around.

Ultimately, even though the Chiefs haven't asked Matt Cassel to do too much this season, he's been the key in playing incredibly efficiently and make smart decisions when it mattered. Back-up Brodie Croyle simply won't be able to do that if the Chargers put pressure on him by making it close or taking a lead. As long as San Diego avoids more horrendous special teams mistakes, they will win this game.

Chargers 27, Chiefs 9

Chargers' Season in the Hands of Fate

The Raiders came to San Diego last Sunday and pushed around a Charger team that, after experiencing some early game (early season) adversity, was not ready for a fight. While many Chargers told the media beforehand that they were prepared for Oakland's best, it seemed even Norv and Rivera underestimated the Raiders.

The Chargers seemed to play Oakland straight, without any special plays or packages designed to surprise or confound. It's almost as if they decided after beating Indy easily the week before that they were the better team and didn't have to do anything special for the Raiders, but they ran into a buzzsaw.

After Sproles early fumble, Rivers incredibly errant pass that went for an interception and the Raiders went up 14-0, the Chargers lost their ability to break the Raiders' spirit. I still believe that if San Diego could have struck first and built a lead, the Raiders would have folded as they did against Miami the previous week. In letting the Raiders take a lead, they exposed themselves to the formula that all teams playing the Chargers should employ.

The Raiders pounded the ball up the middle and off tackle, challenging San Diego's athletic but less stout linebackers and undersized safeties. This strategy might sound familiar as the Jets used it last season to kick the Chargers out of the playoffs. I like Weddle and think he's a good player, but he's the kind of safety that works best against a dizzying passing offense like the Colts employ. As I said last week, the Chargers D seems designed to challenge the "offense of the future," but struggles when the old school folks come to town. This truth should frighten Chargers fans, because even if San Diego still makes the playoffs, how will they fare against the likes of Pittsburgh and Baltimore?

On the other side of the ball the Chargers ran up against some match-up problems on the offensive line. With Louis Vazquez out with a neck injury, back up guard Tyrone Greene had to step in and go one on one with the massive Tommy Kelly. He couldn't get much help from Hardwick at center because he was helping Dielman deal (no pun intended) with the other D tackle who happens to be the incredibly strong and dangerous Richard Seymour. The Raiders D-line also utilizes a smart strategy against the Chargers' O-line. Instead of trying to get around the technically sound and well coached Charger linemen, they simply use their strength and height to push them back into Rivers' face. This inhibits Rivers' vision, shinks the pocket, and disallows Phillip from being able to follow through with his throws, causing many errant and high passes (like the one Floyd that caused the interception). Oakland did this in both games, causing the passing game extra problems even when they weren't sacking the quarterback.

The silver lining in all of this (alright...pun intended!) is that most teams don't possess the personell to do this to the Chargers' O-line. So even though this was a horrible home loss that may have cost the Chargers this season, it doesn't mean the team is broken. The Raiders just happen to match-up perfectly with San Diego right now, and when Sproles fumbled the early punt, that perfect storm was set in motion.

As long as the younger players on the Chargers don't lose their confidence, the team is still perfectly capable of winning out and forcing the Chiefs to prove they're for real and earn the AFC West title. With news of Matt Cassel's appendicitis, San Diego's chances to sneak back into the playoffs just increased. The Raiders may be tied with the Chargers and own the tiebreaker in terms of division record and head-to-head, but they have a tougher final four game stretch and haven't shown any sign of consistency this season.

So Charger fans take heart. Though San Diego foolishly left this season to the whims of fate, there is still hope. Things might just look a lot brighter if they can crush the Chiefs at home this Sunday.

Chargers Will Roll Raiders

The Raiders were leading at halftime against the Dolphins last week, but when Miami came out in the third quarter and scored on a 57-yard pass play from Chad Henne to Marlon Moore, you could see the team take a collective sigh. The game was over.

With a lack of leadership or a core of great players to inspire the others, this team will simply fold when things get tough. Now that this season has become rocky, it appears the Raiders have already quit. They may come out with some aggression today, but if the Chargers weather the initial storm and build a lead, the Raiders will soon stop believing they can win.

Oaklands' problems are compounded by the fact that they will be starting a quarterback whose confidence must also be shaky after getting pulled multiple times this season to be replaced by the fiery, but inaccurate and unskilled "gunslinger," Bruce Gradkowski. Jason Campbell seems to have the better temperament for an NFL quarterback, but with a 54% completion rate and a 75 QB rating for the season, he hasn't been tearing things up.

The Chargers pass defense has showed it's for real against Peyton Manning and the Colts. This group is feeling confident and will look to feast on some poorly thrown balls by a desperate quarterback. The Raiders know this and will likely try everything to establish the running game and pound the rock early. The strong play of Anonio Garay in the middle and Rivera's likely decision to stack the box and force the Raiders to beat the Chargers through the air will be the key battle to watch early on.

If the Chargers can build a lead of more than ten points and force the Raiders into third and long situations, this game will be over. The strong play of Cason and Jammer on the outside will let the San Diego put eight or nine guys in the box without fear to stop the speedy, powerful, and best player on the Raiders, Darren McFadden.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers, it should be interesting to see who gets the majority of the carries. Mike Tolbert has become the number one running back, but now that he's ailing with an injured hand, will Norv try to give him more of a break by letting Ryan Mathews take more carries? Ideally, the Chargers would like to have both of these guys close to 100% going into next Sunday's game against the Chiefs.

In the passing game, the Chargers should dominate a defense that is 27th in the league in passing yardage given up. Getting Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee playing back at a high level without pulling hamstrings would be a major victory going into the last stretch of the season and hopefully the playoffs. Antonio Gates will once again be a game time decision. The Chargers probably don't need him for this game, but if he practiced this week and didn't do any more damage to his foot, he might as well go. His injury doesn't seem to get worse through use, it just needs time to heal. For the Chargers to have any chance in the post-season, Gates needs to be healthy.

The Raiders are, after a short period of delusion, again, a franchise in turmoil. They still don't have a true NFL quarterback or head coach, which has been a problem for awhile. The Chargers have looked like a team in playoff form these last few weeks, and as long as they aren't looking ahead to the Chiefs next week (and they remember what happened last time against the Raiders...maybe they should watch the video at the top of this to remind themselves), they should win this one easily at home.

Chargers 34, Raiders 10

Chargers Prove they are Elite

The Chargers embarrassed Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts last night in a game that should signal to fans and the NFL, that the team that has gone to the playoffs and dominated the AFC West for years is back on the scene. Will they prove they are even better than those groups who were summarily bumped from the playoffs too early? It depends on some key injuries, but I think so.

The difference of this year's team is the aggressiveness and confidence of the defense. These guys seem to have matured, and they now "get," and believe in Rivera's schemes. The defensive backs aren't giving up big plays, the defensive line is pushing people back, while the linebackers are playing smart, adjusting to the style of each team they face.

Even with the passing game limited with key receivers out or hobbling around in the secondary, the defense and the solid running game pushed through by Mike Tolbert are enough to give the Chargers multiple ways to win games. This is why they are on their way back to the playoffs and the Colts are sliding downward.

Right now, the Chargers are playing with the confidence of a team that is ready to make a run for, and in, the playoffs. The problem? There are still five games left to go and the suddenly stingy Chiefs refused to give any ground this week. Right now, both teams are 1-2 in the division, so if the Chargers beat the Chiefs and lose no other games, and the Chiefs win out aside from losing to San Diego, the teams will be tied in overall record but the Chargers would posses the superior division record, thus breaking the tie for the division title.

The Chargers have the look of a team ready to win out and take this thing, however, we know anything can happen in the NFL. The upcoming game worries me a bit in that the Chargers, even after having lost to the Raiders earlier this season, could come in a bit overconfident after seeing the horrible performance of the Oakland last week. They still don't appear to have a QB and their spirit looked broken after they fell behind just by three points against Miami. I'm sure they'd love to beat the Chargers though just out of spite. San Diego needs to bring their best for the rest of the season. Luckily, while Norv can't seem to start a season well, he's proven he's adept at keeping the guys focused at the end.

The Chargers now have a chance, and that's all that any team should ask for.

Why the Chargers Will Beat the Colts

The Chargers go to Indianapolis Sunday night to play to Colts in a game that has playoff implications for both teams. The Colts, at 6-4 are wondering for the first time in awhile if they will make the playoffs. The Chargers at 5-5, and having won their last three games, are feeling more confident after blowing out the Broncos on Monday Night Football. Both teams face significant injury issues and will be relying on their Hall of Fame bound quarterbacks to pull this one out.

The Colts have an advantage in playing at home as they've been perfect there and the Chargers have been generally horrible on the road this year, but the Chargers have a superior supporting cast that will be the difference in this game.

San Diego's defense, as in last week's match against the Broncos, will be the difference in this game. Corners, Jammer and Cason, are playing at a high level and will be up for this game. The Broncos tried to pick on Cason last week and he responded with several break-ups and an interception. Safeties, Weddle and Oliver, have shown they understand the scheme and are showing excellent teamwork and communication in not allowing big plays.

With Joseph Addai out and a suspect run blocking scheme and commitment to begin with, the Chargers front seven will stifle the Colts' running game, forcing Manning to try and win it with his arm. The Chargers' athletic linebackers and sure tackling corners will limit the short passing game's effectiveness, forcing Peyton to throw the ball deeper, exposing him to the mistakes, interceptions and general lack of efficiency we've seen in the last four weeks. Looking at Peyton's stats, his quarterback rating has fallen dramatically over the last four weeks. Some of this can be attributed to injuries, and some to playing better defenses like the Patriots (and Chargers).

On the other side of the ball, the Colts have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Chargers will take advantage of this and Rivers' efficiency, and methodically move the ball, keeping Peyton off the field. This will further frustrate the Colts, causing Manning to take even more chances. I expect the Chargers to come up with two or three interceptions en route to this victory.

In the passing game, the Colts' defense is stronger, with a lot of the credit going to defensive ends Mathis and Freeney coming off the edge. Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeil has shown he can handle Freeney in the past. We'll see how right tackle Jeromey Clary does with Mathis. In general, the Chargers' pass protection has been extremely solid since the return of McNeil, and they should be able to handle this challenge. If the Chargers do lose this game, it will be because they put themselves in a hole on special teams or with fumbles...or both, forcing Rivers' to make a late comeback with Freeney and Mathis pinning their ears back causing sacks, fumbles and general mayhem. The Chargers showed us last week that they are now a confident and aggressive football team again and I think those major mistakes of the first half of the season are behind them.

A couple other factors will contribute to Sunday's victory for San Diego: Sproles loves the fake stuff. While the little guy may have trouble churning those little legs on the wet and muddy stuff, he thrives on the field turf. Look for him to have an extra spark in the return game, on screens, and sneaky short passes up the middle like last week. He'll have at least one huge play...On the Chargers defense, I noticed something I hadn't seen all year that just might be the harbinger of interesting things to come: the aggressiveness of the defensive line. This group has been in survival mode since the injury and departure of Jamal Williams last year. Last week though, second year player Vaughn Martin and rookie Cam Thomas both had sacks and looked like they were actually having fun out there. Luis Castillo even made a couple of tackles for negative yardage. This group may be realizing their athletic potential and how aggressive they can be. If so, the Chargers can really become a legitimate top defense in the NFL (in accordance with their previously suspect stats).

A victory this week should set San Diego up perfectly to catch the Chiefs, at the same time, put the Indiapolis Mannings'...I mean Colts', season in jeopardy. Both teams are at a crossroads as franchises. The Chargers have attempted to reload with some younger players with great potential that may just be starting to pay off. The Colts may have put too many of their eggs in Manning's basket, with this game being the tipping point to a long frustrating slide downward.

Chargers 27, Colts 17

On Track

As an NFL analyst for ESPN, you would think Keyshawn Johnson would do a little homework while "preparing" his opinions. Last night before the game, he told Charger fans they wouldn't make it this year because they had "several" games to make up to catch the Chiefs, and that was just unrealistic to think things could work out perfectly. Wrong. With a win last night, the Chargers put the Broncos out of their misery (season over) and stayed on track to catch the Chiefs. More importantly, the Chargers are playing at a level that qualifies them for, and makes them relevant in, the playoffs.

Shaun Phillips deserves the MVP award for last night's game. The guy has matured into a versatile and smart player who has emerged as a leader and play maker on this defense. Fans were right to wonder about his character with some of the things he's said and done in the first half of his career. He seems to have taken his past mistakes to heart though and decided he'd rather be great than be a disgruntled punk. His ability to read plays on the fly coupled with his rangy quickness makes him extremely dangerous in the backfield for quarterbacks and running backs on draws and screens. Great game Shaun.

The special teams didn't lose the game this week and I think we discovered one of the major reasons for the poor performance in previous weeks: the injury to Brandon Siler. Back this week, the guy seemed to make every tackle on kickoffs. His big hits provide a spark of aggressiveness that carry over when the defense takes the field.

As I mentioned in my last post, the defense did prove to be the difference in this game, dominating the Broncos after they looking like they hadn't had their coffee yet on the first series. Orton looks good only when everything goes to plan and when the first receiver who is supposed to open actually is. Anyone who thought Orton belonged in the same conversation with Rivers as elite NFL quarterbacks were disabused of that notion by the end of the night.

When I gamed out the season (two posts ago) I originally picked the Colts to win next week's game in Indianapolis, but given the Chargers' confidence and performance and Peyton Manning's horrible game Sunday, this next game looks very good for San Diego. A win at Indy might even get Keyshawn's attention.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The Chargers will try to prove to a national audience and themselves tonight that they belong in the playoff discussion. Some folks and analysts around the league who haven't been paying much attention may have already written them off. A big win could change all that.

The Chargers are the superior team to the Denver Broncos. While both offenses have been moving the ball and scoring points with ease, the Chargers' defense is for real and should prove the difference in this game. Again, like every other week, San Diego could mess this one up with horrible special teams play and some untimely fumbles.

On defense, I'm looking for Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer, along with Eric Weddle and Paul Oliver, to show they are gelling as a unit and ready for prime time. Many have criticized AJ for some first-round draft picks that haven't panned out, like Buster Davis, Larry English (so far!) and Ryan Mathews (so far!), but Cason is not one of them. In his first year as a starter at corner, he's been extremely solid. If anyone remembers the painful growing pains of Quentin Jammer, Cason seems like a child prodigy by comparison. The Broncos will be able to move the ball and score some points, but also look for this unit to get a couple of key interceptions.

The return of Larry English and Brandon Siler should help the secondary as the linebacking corps will have more fresh legs rushing the passer. English has to be motivated to prove he's not a first-round bust and Siler is fantastic on the sneaky quick blitz up the middle.

On offense, it doesn't look like Ryan Mathews will go. That's fine. Tolbert is capable and should have a good game against a weak and depleted Broncos' defense. Norv would be wise to give Mathews another week or two off to let him get fully healthy as he seems to keep aggravating the same injury.

In the passing game, I will be surprised if Gates makes it on the field this week. He simply needs more time to heal the tear in his foot. On the upside, Malcolm Floyd appears ready to go and should have a big game against a suspect Broncos' secondary. Look for Patrick Crayton and Seyi Ajirotutu to continue getting more and more comfortable with Rivers.

Most analysts seem to be predicting an high flying shootout that comes down to the end. I think the Chargers will be the only ones flying high as their defense will stifle Orton and company.

Chargers 38, Broncos 17

How the Chargers Will Make the Playoffs

After winning the last two games against a couple of the tougher teams on their schedule, the Chargers, even after an atrocious start, have set themselves up to make the playoffs. At 4-5, with a bunch of injured players coming back after the bye week, one could even make the case for the Chargers to be the favorite (again) to win the division. Here's the breakdown of predictions:

Denver at SD: W

SD at Indianapolis: L (although the Chargers could very likely win this one)

Kansas City at SD: W

Oakland at SD: W

San Francisco at SD: W

SD at Cincinnati: W

SD at Denver: W

The last two on the road at Cincinnati and Denver are the scariest, but the Chargers are better, surging, and should win these games. This would put San Diego at 10-6 for the season. Now let's take a look at current division leader Kansas City:

KC at Denver: W (for KC)

Arizona at KC: W

KC at Seattle: L

Denver at KC: W

KC at SD: L

KC at St. Louis L

Tennessee at KC: L

Oakland at KC: W

This puts the Chiefs at 9-7 and one game behind the Chargers for the division. This is precarious for the Chargers because if the the Chiefs step up and win even one game they're not "supposed to," this leaves the division tied, and the playoff decision will fall to tiebreaker scenarios.

Let's take a look at the Raiders (5-4), who also lead the Chargers in the division:

Oakland at Pittsburgh: L (for Oakland)

Miami at Oakland: W

Oakland at SD: L

Oakland at Jacksonville: L

Denver at Oakland: W

Indianapolis at Oakland: L

Oakland at KC: L

This puts the Raiders at 7-9 and out of playoff contention. Although they just beat the Chiefs last week and seem to be a team on the upswing at this point in the season, their schedule is much tougher than KC's or the Chargers' going forward.

Although there are too many variables, and the Chargers should have never put themselves in this hole to begin with, most sober analysts would have to make them the favorite to return to the playoffs. However, it will be unlikely that they will earn a buy, making it more likely that the road forward in the playoffs. May mean a game against an AFC South team at home, then, if they can survive, the road to the Super Bowl would go on the road through Pittsburgh, Indy, New York or New England. If the rest of the season does work out as I've predicted, we'll no doubt hear proclamations of the Chargers being the team "nobody wants to face" after having won seven of their last eight. Deja vu?

Let's just hope they can get in.

Chargers Get What they Need in Houston

Well, the Chargers did make huge special teams mistakes AND turnovers in crucial situations AND they couldn't stop Arian Foster on first and second down, but they still came out with a win.

How?

Phillip Rivers did make a bunch of fill in receivers look like stars. The offensive line was great in pass blocking, giving Rivers time to find the open receiver. Norv called a great game with a trick play at an opportune time.

The Texans helped by seeming to forget they had an unstoppable Marcus Allen-Eric Dickerson-Larry Johnson-hybrid running back in the second half who effortlessly glided through holes, arm tackles and around Chargers the whole first half. This guy has the look of a legend. Arian Foster's touchdown reception-that-wasn't shows the Chargers' luck may be evening out as they go forward. Coach Kubiak's decision to go for it on 4th and 1 out of the hurry-up offense was another gift.

Some Charger receivers did step up, including Patrick Crayton, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Randy McMichael. Ajriotutu made a rookie mistake in the 4th quarter by lining up on the line of scrimmage when he should have been off. Norv went right back to him on a huge third down play and he made a great play in running through a DB to get the ball. He may have just secured himself a spot and a career in the NFL.

This win sets up the Chargers perfectly for strong run for the playoffs after the bye week where they should get back many of their regular starters on offense and defense. The Chiefs just lost to the Raiders, putting the Chargers two games back with seven to go. Charger fans who gave up after week seven need to dig back in their closets for their jerseys.

Oh, and for the love...Please fire Steve Crosby.

Turning Point in Texas

The seriously depleted Chargers go to Houston this week for a game that could determine the fate of their season. Will they build off last week's success, make fewer mistakes, play with passion and win? Or will they go back to their old pattern of making turnovers and younger players showing they aren't ready to compete in the NFL?

The scariest problem is the injury to Antionio Gates. Charger fans have grown used to him playing through severe injuries, but it may just be too much to ask this time. Gates couldn't walk on Monday. This may be the Sunday his consecutive starting streak ends.

Without Gates, someone else on the Chargers' receiving corps must have a big game. At the tight end position, Kris Wilson has only fumbled the ball and Randy McMichael has largely been a disappointment rather than a compliment to Gates. Patrick Crayton seems to be the best candidate at wide receiver, as he looked like he was gaining a rapport with the offense and with Rivers last week. It will also be interesting to see if rookie Seyi Ajirotutu can continue to make plays. The guy looks like someone who has the passion and desire to be a success in this league. Folks hint that he has deep threat speed, but I haven't seen it in a game yet. Look for Norv to give him at least one shot down the field.

If the Chargers win this game, it will be because Rivers plays his best and makes a bunch of back-ups look like regulars. For this to happen, the offensive line will have to have another strong week blocking. The offensive line, Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert will also have to make something happen in the running game. Last week was the O-line's best game. Hopefully they've rediscovered their aggressiveness. I still think Mathews is capable (and due) to have a monster game. This would be a great week for it.

The Texans also have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Andre Johnson may be the best receiver in football. Quarterback Matt Shaub has been accurate with his passes. The Texans hit the jackpot with Mission Bay High alum Arian Foster at running back. This team can move the ball and score points. However, I think the Charger defense has been gaining confidence all season and is underrated by Charger fans and the NFL. Andre Johnson is nursing a bad ankle and may be a bit limited. This should allow the Chargers to stuff the run a bit more. If they can hold Foster and the short passing game on first and second down, then look for some crucial sacks and interceptions to come on third and long in what could be the deciding plays in this one.

San Diego cannot afford any horrible turnovers in the red zone or special teams gaffs this week. This would be too much for this fragile team's confidence on the road. If they can avoid those pitfalls, they win this one by a nose:

Chargers 34, Texans 30

Chargers Show Heart

The biggest development from Sunday's game was that the Chargers showed a whole bunch of heart and aggressiveness in knocking down the Titans in the second half. Darren Sproles getting low and powering through a defender on a touchdown run showed some renewed energy. Mike

Tolbert ran and ran over people like a man possessed. This team just decided (despite some more of the same dumb plays in the first half) not to lose.

In reference to my last post, luck was on the side of the Chargers this week as well. With Kenny Britt going down in the first quarter, the Titans' dominant deep threat was taken away. When Vince Young went down with an ankle injury in the 4th quarter on a QB slide (any worse luck than that?) the Chargers could sit back and defend the less (non?) mobile Kerry Collins.

Phillip Rivers continues to show his mastery of the quarterback position. With Marcus McNeill shaking the rust off in his second week back, Rivers had time to dissect the Titans' secondary. Rivers is the reason this team can't be counted out for the playoffs.

Anyone looking ahead at the rest of the schedule will see a very believable path to 10-6. With the Chiefs playing some real football, will this be enough to catch them? Charger fans have to hope for a mini Broncos-style collapse from a team that hasn't yet faced the real pressure games that will surely come down the stretch.

Next week's game on the road against the Texans suddenly becomes very important. This is one of the tougher teams the Chargers will face in what has become an early playoff drive, but this is a very winnable contest. Right now Peyton Manning is showing the weakness of Houston's secondary.

On an unrelated note: Will the Chargers pick up Randy Moss? No. AJ would never deal with this guy. Should they? No. There's been enough drama this season. With a team nursing some fledgling confidence, the last thing they need is the cynical Moss. Let him go to some other desperate team.

Chargers Start on Road to 10-6 Record Today?

With Chargers' fandom making accusations about who is to blame for this season's horrible start (Fire Norv! Fire AJ! We should've kept LT, Jackson, Williams, Osgood etc.) I'm going to posit something that is perhaps controversial. Maybe the horrible start to this season is more attributable to bad luck than anything else.

Despite the horrible special teams play, without the fumbles, this team could be 7-0. Fumbles? Think about the timing and physics of what it takes for a player to fumble. A hit or swipe has to come at the exact time and place the ball carrier isn't ready for it. A millisecond to early or too late and....well, no fumble.

Even with all the injuries last week and the fumbles, the Chargers were in position to beat what many have been calling one of the "elite teams in the league."

Bad luck, chaos theory, entropy, or whatever you call is to blame more than anything else for this season. Once again (I know I said this last week) at some point the law of averages should even out. This can't go on.

The Titans have been good this season, but they aren't that good. The Chargers will put together a fumble free game and win this one. If they do, looking ahead at the schedule, there is a fairly sane path to 10-6 and another division title. The biggest question is whether or not the team's confidence has been battered too much from the series of unfortunate events this season. I'm encouraged that Antonio Gates seemed to speak up and take on more of a vocal leadership role this week. Hopefully the Chargers listen.

Chargers 17, Titans 10

Chargers Must Win Against Pats

This week, the so far so sloppy Chargers host the best coach in the game, who was probably drawing up X's and O's in his crib. Bill Belichick will find and probe and exploit any weakness the Chargers have exhibited over the first six games (he'll have a lot to choose from). If San Diego isn't at its best, the 4-1 Patriots will roll over them, then frustratingly control the clock and the game by throwing short passes to their stable quick mini-receivers.

Because the Patriots are smart and well coached, it is crucial the Chargers get off to a fast start and stay very close or keep the lead throughout the game. Another sleepwalking start will be fatal. There will be no charging second half comebacks this week. The Pats are too good.

From listening to the Charger players this week, it appears they realize do or die time is finally here. Dropping to 2-5 with a couple more tough games ahead might just be too devastating to recover from, even in the woeful AFC West. Norv's got to know, despite what everyone says about AJ and Dean's love for him, that if this team fails to make the playoffs this season, some crucial momentum and confidence will have been lost within the franchise (a hard thing to get back) and it will be his fault. Look at the New York Giants, a team that won the Super Bowl a few season's ago, now their momentum is gone, and head coach Tom Coughlin seems unable to get it back (should have been fired last year).

This game against the Patriots might just be the tipping point. Win and you've beaten one of the best teams in the NFL and shown The League you still belong in the elite; lose and you may signal the long slow slide of a franchise back to mediocrity. The window will close.

Perhaps my emotions are getting in the way, but I'm not ready let this era of the Chargers die yet. Playing at home seems to give the younger players more comfort and confidence to perform at their best. My head says I may be fooling myself here (how could a fan not lose faith after the last two weeks?), but I'm picking the Chargers to win this one.

San Diego 27, Patriots 24

Saints Show More Heart and Better Coaching

Something is seriously amiss with the San Diego Chargers. They have a great quarterback and offensive minded head coach. All other phases of the game are seriously lacking, causing losses to some of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers simply aren't doing the little things right.

To begin the game, the offensive line was not prepared for the Rams' blitzes, leading to five sacks and increased confidence for a Rams team that is in rebuilding mode. If the Chargers want to win these games against inferior teams, they have to step on their throats early and stay on them until their confidence breaks. The Chargers seem to simply lack the aggressiveness gene this year. Where is the sense of desperation?

After the Rams went up 10-0, Norv seemed to panic a bit and abandon the run game, passing on first down for several series in a row, but the lack of pass blocking led to the Chargers going backwards instead of forwards.

On special teams, San Diego gave up another long punt return and now the field goal unit failed by allowing a hugely important blocked kick. Steve Crosby's units continue to find new ways to let the team down. The guy should be fired.

The only good news out of this week is that Kansas City also lost, so the Chargers are still within striking distance for winning the division. The AFC West is still weak.

Norv needs to focus his energies on all phases and details of the game to turn this team around. He seems so dialed into what's going on with Phillip Rivers and the X's and O's of the passing game that everything else is going to pot. This season has started HORRIBLY, but is still salvageable.

We'll find out what Norv and these players are made of next week as they face the Patriots at home.