Chargers 2009 Record Prediction and Analysis

Wondering how the San Diego Chargers will do this season? Here's a game by game prediction:




RECORD 14-2 & a Super Bowl Victory



Week 1 Mon. Sep. 14 @ Raiders 7:15 PM W


The Raiders will come out pumped up and probably try some desperate trick plays, but soon realize they're in for another season of dysfunction as their losing streak to the Chargers grows.

Week 2 Sun. Sep. 20 Ravens 1:15 PM W


This is a tough early game and will be close, but the Chargers use home field advantage and early season confidence to pull this one out. The Ravens may find out Ray Lewis is getting older and Joe Flacco is a bit overrated.

Week 3 Sun. Sep. 27 Dolphins 1:15 PM W


Teams are more prepared for the Wildcat this season, showing it for the flash in the pan NFL fad that it is. The Dolphins are tough and play hard, but don't have the talent of the Chargers.

Week 4 Sun. Oct. 4 @ Steelers 5:20 PM L


This should be an excellent early season reality check for San Diego, showing them that they may be good, but if they want to win the Super Bowl they're going to have to be great. Hopefully, this will be one of those losses that can be turned into a positive, challenging the team to work harder.

Week 5 Sun. Oct. 11 BYE


I'm not a fan of early bye's, but the Chargers will need it at this point after three consecutive tough, old-school style opponents in a row. Take a break. Hit the beach. Stay away from The Stingaree and women who are named after any kind of alcohol, and start salivating about crushing your woeful division "rivals."

Week 6 Mon. Oct. 19 Broncos 5:30 PM W


Ed Hochuli can't save you now. The Broncos are vying with the Raiders for the "Most Disastrous Off Season Ever" award. All they need to do to catch up is intra-squad choking drills. I'm sure many Broncos would line up to get at Brandon Marshall.

Week 7 Sun. Oct. 25 @ Chiefs 10:00 AM W


I know many folks are saying the Chiefs are the most dangerous opponent in the AFC West for San Diego, but with the state of the division, that's not saying much. They simply don't have the personnel on defense. I'm also not convinced that Matt Cassel can be as effective without "the genius" backing him up. What the Broncos and Chiefs haven't figured out yet is that just because someone worked with Bill Belichick, doesn't mean they are Bill Belichick. The guy who mixed paint for Leonardo Da Vinci probably couldn't paint worth a lick. The "genius by association" theory will prove to be false again this season.

Week 8 Sun. Nov. 1 Raiders 1:05 PM W


By this point in the season, Raiders fans will be wondering again if they can trade Al Davis. There will also be recriminations for releasing their only viable quarterback in Jeff Garcia, because he was too good and might create the dreaded "quarterback controversy." Hey, Tom Cable may even be on trial for felony assault. The good news for the Chargers? Billy Volek gets some valuable mid-season playing time as San Diego wins by 35.

Week 9 Sun. Nov. 08 @ Giants 1:15 PM L


Lest the Chargers get too cocky, here's another reality check for them in traveling to a tough, East Coast, NFC opponent. This should be a great test of the stolidness of San Diego's run defense as the Giants have the best offensive line in the league. Once again though, this loss comes at the perfect time, reminding the Chargers whose heads may be inflating with three consecutive victories over AFC West tomato cans, that the playoffs will be as tough as ever.

Week 10 Sun. Nov. 15 Eagles 1:15 PM W


The Eagles should be another tough opponent, but the Chargers will be up to the task on this one. McNab has a 50/50 chance of being injured by this point in the season the way things usually go for him. Could the Chargers see a starting Michael Vick? Let's hope so.

Week 11 Sun. Nov. 22 @ Broncos* 1:15 PM W


The "Mile-High Mystique" will have thoroughly lost its mojo by this point in the season.

Week 12 Sun. Nov. 29 Chiefs* 1:05 PM W


LaDanian Tomlinson shows he hasn't lost a step with a huge game at home against a weak defense. Doubters will be surprised to see him approaching 2006 MVP stats at this point in the season.

Week 13 Sun. Dec. 6 @ Browns* 1:05 PM W


This could be a "sleeper" game which the Chargers take too lightly after four consecutive wins, but I'm going to give Norv and the veteran leadership on this team the nod here in keeping this team focused to beat the rebuilding Browns.

Week 14 Sun. Dec. 13 @ Cowboys* 1:15 PM W


I don't think Dallas is as good as they think they are. Jerry Jones is kind of an "Al Davis-Lite" in getting too involved in football operations, when he isn't really a football professional. Tony Romo really hasn't proven himself to be much more than a flashy flash in the pan either. They will have a poor season. The blame will fall on Wade Phillips, who will be fired, instead of where it should be placed, with Jerry Jones. Good news for the Chargers? San Diego will be able to bring Phillips back as defensive coordinator after Ron Rivera accepts a head coaching job in 2010.

Week 15 Sun. Dec. 20 Bengals* 1:05 PM W


Anyone see the HBO reality training camp show "Hard Knocks"? Well, it featured the Bengals this season. They look like a tragedy waiting to happen.

Week 16 Fri. Dec. 25 @ Titans 4:30 PM W


This game will have playoff implications in terms of home-field advantage and a playoff atmosphere. The Titans will be much less scary without Albert Haynesworth. The Chargers will tee-off on a slow moving (if he isn't already injured) Kerry Collins.

Week 17 Sun. Jan. 3 Redskins* 1:15 PM W


San Diego's offensive line won't have to shed a tear that they missed Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee, as they will get to face his awesome and cheap shot-taking presence at home this week. The Redskins keep under performing because they don't have a strong quarterback. The main focus here will be getting the win to maintain home-field advantage over the Steelers and Patriots in the playoffs, but another big focus will be staying healthy. I wouldn't put it beyond Haynesworth to pull a late hit body slam or knee slam on LT, Rivers, or Gates (which he's done before) just for the pure joy of injuring someone (he's a real nice fellow).


If the Chargers go into the post-season with any of these three injured again, we must consider that we may have some sort of Chicago Cub-like voodoo curse on our city. The ghost of Jack Murphy (I want my stadium back)? The ghost of Gene Klein cursing the Spanoses for daring to consider moving his beloved team?


I'm one to believe in the reality of the law of averages over curses, so I'm predicting none of this will happen this season. San Diego will get a bye in the playoffs, then go on to beat the Steelers and Patriots at home, then take the Minessota Vikings in the Super Bowl.

Charger Defensive Backs 2009 Starting Grade: B-

This group was much maligned last year as the Chargers pass defense ended up ranked 31st in the league. Make all the excuses you want: lack of pass rush, a high scoring offense forcing teams to pass to keep up, etc. but 31st is just terrible.


One of the key questions going into this season, I think, has been answered. Can cornerback Antonio Cromartie regain his 2007 form after playing with an injured hip all last season? When he jumped in front of a Kurt Warner pass in the end zone against Arizona in the preseason, then returned it for 50 yards with a nice stiff arm to the jaw of Warner on his way out of bounds, I think we had our answer. Cromartie still needs to work on his run defense and tackling. Sometimes he looks like Deion Sanders at is worst with his arm tackles and lack of "stoutness" on the edge. But if he can get by in the run game and regain that freakish athletic ability against the pass, the Chargers will be in good shape in 09.

The other corner is almost forgotten because he's become so good. Teams don't want to throw at Quentin Jammer anymore because he's all over the receivers. San Diego fans have been rewarded for their patience in the development of one of the finest corners in the league. The preseason reminded us that he still has hands of stone (anyone remember stick-um?), but he is a true shut-down corner at this point in his career. Unlike Cromartie, Jammer is vicious in the run game, as one of the bigger hitters on the team. If he wasn't so good at corner, he would make a great safety.


Speaking of safeties, Eric Weddle has developed nicely into the smart player and leader of the defense AJ Smith envisioned when drafting him. He is undersized and isn't going to intimidate any receivers coming across the middle, but he seems to be in right place consistently and not miss tackles. This will only be his third year, so expect him to show even more improvement and make some picks this season.

The strong safety position is the biggest question mark and perhaps weakness of the whole team. Clinton Hart works hard and tries his best, but seems to have critical mental lapses in coverage, giving up big plays. Some of this was evident in the preseason, though he managed to make some strong plays as well with some crucial tackles in the run game and a stunning interception. The question is, can San Diego win with his inconsistent play? Will AJ Smith's failure to bring in an experienced veteran to this position (Brian Dawkins?) be the biggest factor in the Chargers' failure to win a Super Bowl this season? We'll have to watch and see.

The team has been high on safety Steve Gregory in camp and there's a chance he could be starting at some point. Also rookie safety, Kevin Ellison, out of USC made some monster hits in the preseason and looks like a real NFL starter. The problem is that it's scary to trust a rookie to this crucial position that can give up game winning touchdowns if it isn't played right. I think Ellison will have to wait and apply his big hitting prowess to special teams this year.

Third cornerback, Antione Cason has developed nicely as a first-round draft pick and could be a starter on just about any team in the league. If Cromartie relapses into terrible play again this year, he will be somewhere else next season and Cason will be starting.

So this is a make or break year for this group that should be much, much better than 31st in the league.

Chargers Defensive Line Starting 2009: B

In any discussion of the d-line, we must begin with the great Jamal Williams. He is one of my favorite Chargers, bringing a swagger and confidence to the whole team. His powerful presence allows the linebackers to run around and make plays. Watch how he consistently pushes double-teams into the back-field. His age and his knees are the only thing to worry about as the season goes on. Reports from camp say he is doing better this summer than last and should be set to have a good, and full, season.

At left end is the hard to figure out Luis Castillo. He had a promising rookie season a few years ago, but was slowed by recurring ankle injuries for two years after that. Last year he was healthy, but didn't seem to have that same spark and play making ability he once did. The 3-4 defense is hard on ends, as they absorb a lot of double-teams. Is he better suited to play outside in the 4-3 defense? The Chargers like his team spirit and work ethic, but this is a pivotal year for Castillo. He needs to show a bit more or the team may be looking in another direction. A great year from him could be a pivotal factor in San Diego reaching the Super Bowl.

The right end position seems to be a bit of mystery going into the season. Jaques Cesaire was slotted to start early on, but he has been injured for most of camp and didn't play in any preseason games. He did start last year as Ron Rivera favored him over the disappearing Igor Olshansky (now with Dallas). Cesaire has been announced as the official starter next week against the Raiders, but can he really be ready to go?

Ryon Bingham was supposed to be the experienced back-up, but he was recently put on injured reserve with a torn triceps. The Chargers also drafted rookie Vaughn Martin out of Canada. He's an amazing athlete with great potential, but needs more experience before he's ready.

Recently, San Diego gave up a sixth round pick to the Houston Texans to pick up DE Travis Johnson. The Texans were going to cut him, frustrated because he seemed to always be injured. He currently has a sports hernia and there's some question as to whether he will be ready to go Sunday. If he can heal and regain the form that made him a high draft pick years ago, he could be a surprising steal for the Chargers and end up starting.

So overall, this is a group with a ton of potential but some significant question marks. We'll have to watch closely the first few games to see how it all pans out.

Shawne Merriman and Tila Tequila?

I know these players are young and living the life, but even for a 25 year-old it's probably not the wisest idea to be hanging out with a hammered Tila Tequila at your house at 3:45 AM before the start of what many think is your franchise's best shot at a Super Bowl. Probably not a good idea when you're rehabbing back from a severe knee injury and illegal substance accusations in the last year of your contract and trying to prove to the NFL that you can still be a dominant force.

Shawne Merriman has been a great player, but I can understand why AJ Smith might let him go. I doubt any of the Patriots or Steelers are out this week getting involved in this kind of insanity.

Maybe his hubris will be his downfall. I can party, be a rock star and one of the best players in the NFL on my way to the Super Bowl. No you can't. I can play through a knee injury and heal myself through my superhuman will. No you can't.

Hopefully, Merriman's story, that he was simply trying to restrain Ms. Tequila from driving drunk, turns out to be true. But whatever the outcome, he needs to rethink who he's hanging out with during the season. People thought Jessica Simpson was bad for Tony Romo? She's June Cleaver next to Tila.

Chargers 53-Man Roster

AJ Smith and company show they are serious about contending for a Super Bowl this year by taking some risks in yesterday's cuts. They keep running backs Michael Bennett, Gartrell Johnson and fullback Mike Tolbert. This necessitated at least one surprise cut somewhere else.

They cut guard Kynan Forney, who was slotted as the starting right guard until he sustained a neck injury a few weeks ago. They also cut veteran tackle LJ Shelton. This means they have confidence in, but are taking a risk on, some young starting offensive linemen in guard Louis Vasquez and tackle Jeromey Clary. The back-ups for these guys are also young and inexperienced. The Chargers are only keeping eight offensive lineman, fewer than the overwhelming majority of NFL teams feel comfortable with.

Will this gamble pay off?

We will have to see as the season develops. If Gartrell Johnson and Michael Bennett contribute in some way and the Chargers do well, these will look like great decisions. If the run game falters because Clary and Vasquez aren't getting it done (which they haven't really proven they can do in the preseason) it may look like a foolish risk. We'll have to wait and see, but I agree with the decisions to keep all the running backs over some under performing offensive linemen.

Another possibility is that AJ Smith is holding onto Bennett, or Johnson for that matter, in case a team in desperate need for a running back comes calling. The Chargers are only keeping three corner backs, thinking an extra safety can fill that spot in dime-back passing situations. If the right corner gets offered, one of these extra running backs could be out the door.

The drama continues! Stay tuned.

Charger vs. 49rs Post Game Analysis

Well, rookie running back Gartrell Johnson looked much more comfortable in the offense tonight, allowing his blocks to set up and consistently running over the first tackler (though mostly against the 2nd and 3rd stringers). He displayed great power and more quickness if not great speed. His toughness is something special though I still worry he's going to get hurt. He did drop an easy screen pass and almost fumble but overall, he simply had a great game and deserves to make the 53-man roster.

The problem? Michael Bennett, though he had fewer carries, made the most of it looking like a veteran starting running back. Many teams would like to have this guy. On one screen pass he leaped over a tackler then made two quick moves completely spinning around a corner back and running right by him.

If it comes down to a decision between Johnson, Bennett and fullback Mike Tolbert, I think Tolbert should be the one pushed off the plank to the practice squad.

Starting full back Jacob Hester also had a nice night catching a couple passes in the flat, then using his speed to turn the corner. The play-action pass to Hester will be consistent 5-yard gainer all season long. How can defenses cover him well with all the other weapons on the field? I just hope his run blocking improves.

Chargers vs. 49rs Preseason Preview

The best thing about tonight's game is that it's the last preseason game and we get to some real football in two weeks (next week against the Raiders doesn't count). This will probably be the least eventful game in terms of seeing much from guys who will play in the regular season and it looks like just about all of the roster decisions have been made as well.

The UT has reported that the Chargers will probably keep full back Mike Tolbert over running back Michael Bennett. While I'm feeling wise and vindicated as this was my original prediction weeks ago, Bennett's recent play has changed my mind. I think they should find a way to keep Bennett. Here's why:

• With an aging LaDanian Tomlinson and a Shawne Merriman in the last year of his contract, this isn't the year to plan for the future. The Chargers should make the run now and Bennett is capable of making huge plays, while Tolbert is just a back-up and good special teams player who wasn't greatly effective before he got injured last year anyway.



• Tight End Kris Wilson played a version of full back in Kansas City and can back up as needed.



• Rookie running back Gartrell Johnson hasn't shown much yet in preseason. With the way he runs straight up and gets popped, he has a greater chance of getting injured as a back- up than LT as a starter. Let Bennett fill that role.



• Tolbert may be able to be put on reserve on the practice squad without getting picked up, while Bennett will be immediately snatched by a division rival like Denver or even worse, a good team like the Patriots that we'll have to see in the playoffs.
  

I'm a big fan of AJ Smith, but I hope he doesn't stubbornly stick to preconceived notions here without considering what Bennett might do for us this year.

The only other thing I'm looking for tonight is for Larry English to get some more playing time and see if he can get to the quarterback and get more comfortable in the defense.