On Track

As an NFL analyst for ESPN, you would think Keyshawn Johnson would do a little homework while "preparing" his opinions. Last night before the game, he told Charger fans they wouldn't make it this year because they had "several" games to make up to catch the Chiefs, and that was just unrealistic to think things could work out perfectly. Wrong. With a win last night, the Chargers put the Broncos out of their misery (season over) and stayed on track to catch the Chiefs. More importantly, the Chargers are playing at a level that qualifies them for, and makes them relevant in, the playoffs.

Shaun Phillips deserves the MVP award for last night's game. The guy has matured into a versatile and smart player who has emerged as a leader and play maker on this defense. Fans were right to wonder about his character with some of the things he's said and done in the first half of his career. He seems to have taken his past mistakes to heart though and decided he'd rather be great than be a disgruntled punk. His ability to read plays on the fly coupled with his rangy quickness makes him extremely dangerous in the backfield for quarterbacks and running backs on draws and screens. Great game Shaun.

The special teams didn't lose the game this week and I think we discovered one of the major reasons for the poor performance in previous weeks: the injury to Brandon Siler. Back this week, the guy seemed to make every tackle on kickoffs. His big hits provide a spark of aggressiveness that carry over when the defense takes the field.

As I mentioned in my last post, the defense did prove to be the difference in this game, dominating the Broncos after they looking like they hadn't had their coffee yet on the first series. Orton looks good only when everything goes to plan and when the first receiver who is supposed to open actually is. Anyone who thought Orton belonged in the same conversation with Rivers as elite NFL quarterbacks were disabused of that notion by the end of the night.

When I gamed out the season (two posts ago) I originally picked the Colts to win next week's game in Indianapolis, but given the Chargers' confidence and performance and Peyton Manning's horrible game Sunday, this next game looks very good for San Diego. A win at Indy might even get Keyshawn's attention.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The Chargers will try to prove to a national audience and themselves tonight that they belong in the playoff discussion. Some folks and analysts around the league who haven't been paying much attention may have already written them off. A big win could change all that.

The Chargers are the superior team to the Denver Broncos. While both offenses have been moving the ball and scoring points with ease, the Chargers' defense is for real and should prove the difference in this game. Again, like every other week, San Diego could mess this one up with horrible special teams play and some untimely fumbles.

On defense, I'm looking for Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer, along with Eric Weddle and Paul Oliver, to show they are gelling as a unit and ready for prime time. Many have criticized AJ for some first-round draft picks that haven't panned out, like Buster Davis, Larry English (so far!) and Ryan Mathews (so far!), but Cason is not one of them. In his first year as a starter at corner, he's been extremely solid. If anyone remembers the painful growing pains of Quentin Jammer, Cason seems like a child prodigy by comparison. The Broncos will be able to move the ball and score some points, but also look for this unit to get a couple of key interceptions.

The return of Larry English and Brandon Siler should help the secondary as the linebacking corps will have more fresh legs rushing the passer. English has to be motivated to prove he's not a first-round bust and Siler is fantastic on the sneaky quick blitz up the middle.

On offense, it doesn't look like Ryan Mathews will go. That's fine. Tolbert is capable and should have a good game against a weak and depleted Broncos' defense. Norv would be wise to give Mathews another week or two off to let him get fully healthy as he seems to keep aggravating the same injury.

In the passing game, I will be surprised if Gates makes it on the field this week. He simply needs more time to heal the tear in his foot. On the upside, Malcolm Floyd appears ready to go and should have a big game against a suspect Broncos' secondary. Look for Patrick Crayton and Seyi Ajirotutu to continue getting more and more comfortable with Rivers.

Most analysts seem to be predicting an high flying shootout that comes down to the end. I think the Chargers will be the only ones flying high as their defense will stifle Orton and company.

Chargers 38, Broncos 17

How the Chargers Will Make the Playoffs

After winning the last two games against a couple of the tougher teams on their schedule, the Chargers, even after an atrocious start, have set themselves up to make the playoffs. At 4-5, with a bunch of injured players coming back after the bye week, one could even make the case for the Chargers to be the favorite (again) to win the division. Here's the breakdown of predictions:

Denver at SD: W

SD at Indianapolis: L (although the Chargers could very likely win this one)

Kansas City at SD: W

Oakland at SD: W

San Francisco at SD: W

SD at Cincinnati: W

SD at Denver: W

The last two on the road at Cincinnati and Denver are the scariest, but the Chargers are better, surging, and should win these games. This would put San Diego at 10-6 for the season. Now let's take a look at current division leader Kansas City:

KC at Denver: W (for KC)

Arizona at KC: W

KC at Seattle: L

Denver at KC: W

KC at SD: L

KC at St. Louis L

Tennessee at KC: L

Oakland at KC: W

This puts the Chiefs at 9-7 and one game behind the Chargers for the division. This is precarious for the Chargers because if the the Chiefs step up and win even one game they're not "supposed to," this leaves the division tied, and the playoff decision will fall to tiebreaker scenarios.

Let's take a look at the Raiders (5-4), who also lead the Chargers in the division:

Oakland at Pittsburgh: L (for Oakland)

Miami at Oakland: W

Oakland at SD: L

Oakland at Jacksonville: L

Denver at Oakland: W

Indianapolis at Oakland: L

Oakland at KC: L

This puts the Raiders at 7-9 and out of playoff contention. Although they just beat the Chiefs last week and seem to be a team on the upswing at this point in the season, their schedule is much tougher than KC's or the Chargers' going forward.

Although there are too many variables, and the Chargers should have never put themselves in this hole to begin with, most sober analysts would have to make them the favorite to return to the playoffs. However, it will be unlikely that they will earn a buy, making it more likely that the road forward in the playoffs. May mean a game against an AFC South team at home, then, if they can survive, the road to the Super Bowl would go on the road through Pittsburgh, Indy, New York or New England. If the rest of the season does work out as I've predicted, we'll no doubt hear proclamations of the Chargers being the team "nobody wants to face" after having won seven of their last eight. Deja vu?

Let's just hope they can get in.

Chargers Get What they Need in Houston

Well, the Chargers did make huge special teams mistakes AND turnovers in crucial situations AND they couldn't stop Arian Foster on first and second down, but they still came out with a win.

How?

Phillip Rivers did make a bunch of fill in receivers look like stars. The offensive line was great in pass blocking, giving Rivers time to find the open receiver. Norv called a great game with a trick play at an opportune time.

The Texans helped by seeming to forget they had an unstoppable Marcus Allen-Eric Dickerson-Larry Johnson-hybrid running back in the second half who effortlessly glided through holes, arm tackles and around Chargers the whole first half. This guy has the look of a legend. Arian Foster's touchdown reception-that-wasn't shows the Chargers' luck may be evening out as they go forward. Coach Kubiak's decision to go for it on 4th and 1 out of the hurry-up offense was another gift.

Some Charger receivers did step up, including Patrick Crayton, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Randy McMichael. Ajriotutu made a rookie mistake in the 4th quarter by lining up on the line of scrimmage when he should have been off. Norv went right back to him on a huge third down play and he made a great play in running through a DB to get the ball. He may have just secured himself a spot and a career in the NFL.

This win sets up the Chargers perfectly for strong run for the playoffs after the bye week where they should get back many of their regular starters on offense and defense. The Chiefs just lost to the Raiders, putting the Chargers two games back with seven to go. Charger fans who gave up after week seven need to dig back in their closets for their jerseys.

Oh, and for the love...Please fire Steve Crosby.

Turning Point in Texas

The seriously depleted Chargers go to Houston this week for a game that could determine the fate of their season. Will they build off last week's success, make fewer mistakes, play with passion and win? Or will they go back to their old pattern of making turnovers and younger players showing they aren't ready to compete in the NFL?

The scariest problem is the injury to Antionio Gates. Charger fans have grown used to him playing through severe injuries, but it may just be too much to ask this time. Gates couldn't walk on Monday. This may be the Sunday his consecutive starting streak ends.

Without Gates, someone else on the Chargers' receiving corps must have a big game. At the tight end position, Kris Wilson has only fumbled the ball and Randy McMichael has largely been a disappointment rather than a compliment to Gates. Patrick Crayton seems to be the best candidate at wide receiver, as he looked like he was gaining a rapport with the offense and with Rivers last week. It will also be interesting to see if rookie Seyi Ajirotutu can continue to make plays. The guy looks like someone who has the passion and desire to be a success in this league. Folks hint that he has deep threat speed, but I haven't seen it in a game yet. Look for Norv to give him at least one shot down the field.

If the Chargers win this game, it will be because Rivers plays his best and makes a bunch of back-ups look like regulars. For this to happen, the offensive line will have to have another strong week blocking. The offensive line, Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert will also have to make something happen in the running game. Last week was the O-line's best game. Hopefully they've rediscovered their aggressiveness. I still think Mathews is capable (and due) to have a monster game. This would be a great week for it.

The Texans also have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Andre Johnson may be the best receiver in football. Quarterback Matt Shaub has been accurate with his passes. The Texans hit the jackpot with Mission Bay High alum Arian Foster at running back. This team can move the ball and score points. However, I think the Charger defense has been gaining confidence all season and is underrated by Charger fans and the NFL. Andre Johnson is nursing a bad ankle and may be a bit limited. This should allow the Chargers to stuff the run a bit more. If they can hold Foster and the short passing game on first and second down, then look for some crucial sacks and interceptions to come on third and long in what could be the deciding plays in this one.

San Diego cannot afford any horrible turnovers in the red zone or special teams gaffs this week. This would be too much for this fragile team's confidence on the road. If they can avoid those pitfalls, they win this one by a nose:

Chargers 34, Texans 30

Chargers Show Heart

The biggest development from Sunday's game was that the Chargers showed a whole bunch of heart and aggressiveness in knocking down the Titans in the second half. Darren Sproles getting low and powering through a defender on a touchdown run showed some renewed energy. Mike

Tolbert ran and ran over people like a man possessed. This team just decided (despite some more of the same dumb plays in the first half) not to lose.

In reference to my last post, luck was on the side of the Chargers this week as well. With Kenny Britt going down in the first quarter, the Titans' dominant deep threat was taken away. When Vince Young went down with an ankle injury in the 4th quarter on a QB slide (any worse luck than that?) the Chargers could sit back and defend the less (non?) mobile Kerry Collins.

Phillip Rivers continues to show his mastery of the quarterback position. With Marcus McNeill shaking the rust off in his second week back, Rivers had time to dissect the Titans' secondary. Rivers is the reason this team can't be counted out for the playoffs.

Anyone looking ahead at the rest of the schedule will see a very believable path to 10-6. With the Chiefs playing some real football, will this be enough to catch them? Charger fans have to hope for a mini Broncos-style collapse from a team that hasn't yet faced the real pressure games that will surely come down the stretch.

Next week's game on the road against the Texans suddenly becomes very important. This is one of the tougher teams the Chargers will face in what has become an early playoff drive, but this is a very winnable contest. Right now Peyton Manning is showing the weakness of Houston's secondary.

On an unrelated note: Will the Chargers pick up Randy Moss? No. AJ would never deal with this guy. Should they? No. There's been enough drama this season. With a team nursing some fledgling confidence, the last thing they need is the cynical Moss. Let him go to some other desperate team.

Chargers Start on Road to 10-6 Record Today?

With Chargers' fandom making accusations about who is to blame for this season's horrible start (Fire Norv! Fire AJ! We should've kept LT, Jackson, Williams, Osgood etc.) I'm going to posit something that is perhaps controversial. Maybe the horrible start to this season is more attributable to bad luck than anything else.

Despite the horrible special teams play, without the fumbles, this team could be 7-0. Fumbles? Think about the timing and physics of what it takes for a player to fumble. A hit or swipe has to come at the exact time and place the ball carrier isn't ready for it. A millisecond to early or too late and....well, no fumble.

Even with all the injuries last week and the fumbles, the Chargers were in position to beat what many have been calling one of the "elite teams in the league."

Bad luck, chaos theory, entropy, or whatever you call is to blame more than anything else for this season. Once again (I know I said this last week) at some point the law of averages should even out. This can't go on.

The Titans have been good this season, but they aren't that good. The Chargers will put together a fumble free game and win this one. If they do, looking ahead at the schedule, there is a fairly sane path to 10-6 and another division title. The biggest question is whether or not the team's confidence has been battered too much from the series of unfortunate events this season. I'm encouraged that Antonio Gates seemed to speak up and take on more of a vocal leadership role this week. Hopefully the Chargers listen.

Chargers 17, Titans 10