Chargers' Season in the Hands of Fate

The Raiders came to San Diego last Sunday and pushed around a Charger team that, after experiencing some early game (early season) adversity, was not ready for a fight. While many Chargers told the media beforehand that they were prepared for Oakland's best, it seemed even Norv and Rivera underestimated the Raiders.

The Chargers seemed to play Oakland straight, without any special plays or packages designed to surprise or confound. It's almost as if they decided after beating Indy easily the week before that they were the better team and didn't have to do anything special for the Raiders, but they ran into a buzzsaw.

After Sproles early fumble, Rivers incredibly errant pass that went for an interception and the Raiders went up 14-0, the Chargers lost their ability to break the Raiders' spirit. I still believe that if San Diego could have struck first and built a lead, the Raiders would have folded as they did against Miami the previous week. In letting the Raiders take a lead, they exposed themselves to the formula that all teams playing the Chargers should employ.

The Raiders pounded the ball up the middle and off tackle, challenging San Diego's athletic but less stout linebackers and undersized safeties. This strategy might sound familiar as the Jets used it last season to kick the Chargers out of the playoffs. I like Weddle and think he's a good player, but he's the kind of safety that works best against a dizzying passing offense like the Colts employ. As I said last week, the Chargers D seems designed to challenge the "offense of the future," but struggles when the old school folks come to town. This truth should frighten Chargers fans, because even if San Diego still makes the playoffs, how will they fare against the likes of Pittsburgh and Baltimore?

On the other side of the ball the Chargers ran up against some match-up problems on the offensive line. With Louis Vazquez out with a neck injury, back up guard Tyrone Greene had to step in and go one on one with the massive Tommy Kelly. He couldn't get much help from Hardwick at center because he was helping Dielman deal (no pun intended) with the other D tackle who happens to be the incredibly strong and dangerous Richard Seymour. The Raiders D-line also utilizes a smart strategy against the Chargers' O-line. Instead of trying to get around the technically sound and well coached Charger linemen, they simply use their strength and height to push them back into Rivers' face. This inhibits Rivers' vision, shinks the pocket, and disallows Phillip from being able to follow through with his throws, causing many errant and high passes (like the one Floyd that caused the interception). Oakland did this in both games, causing the passing game extra problems even when they weren't sacking the quarterback.

The silver lining in all of this (alright...pun intended!) is that most teams don't possess the personell to do this to the Chargers' O-line. So even though this was a horrible home loss that may have cost the Chargers this season, it doesn't mean the team is broken. The Raiders just happen to match-up perfectly with San Diego right now, and when Sproles fumbled the early punt, that perfect storm was set in motion.

As long as the younger players on the Chargers don't lose their confidence, the team is still perfectly capable of winning out and forcing the Chiefs to prove they're for real and earn the AFC West title. With news of Matt Cassel's appendicitis, San Diego's chances to sneak back into the playoffs just increased. The Raiders may be tied with the Chargers and own the tiebreaker in terms of division record and head-to-head, but they have a tougher final four game stretch and haven't shown any sign of consistency this season.

So Charger fans take heart. Though San Diego foolishly left this season to the whims of fate, there is still hope. Things might just look a lot brighter if they can crush the Chiefs at home this Sunday.

Chargers Will Roll Raiders

The Raiders were leading at halftime against the Dolphins last week, but when Miami came out in the third quarter and scored on a 57-yard pass play from Chad Henne to Marlon Moore, you could see the team take a collective sigh. The game was over.

With a lack of leadership or a core of great players to inspire the others, this team will simply fold when things get tough. Now that this season has become rocky, it appears the Raiders have already quit. They may come out with some aggression today, but if the Chargers weather the initial storm and build a lead, the Raiders will soon stop believing they can win.

Oaklands' problems are compounded by the fact that they will be starting a quarterback whose confidence must also be shaky after getting pulled multiple times this season to be replaced by the fiery, but inaccurate and unskilled "gunslinger," Bruce Gradkowski. Jason Campbell seems to have the better temperament for an NFL quarterback, but with a 54% completion rate and a 75 QB rating for the season, he hasn't been tearing things up.

The Chargers pass defense has showed it's for real against Peyton Manning and the Colts. This group is feeling confident and will look to feast on some poorly thrown balls by a desperate quarterback. The Raiders know this and will likely try everything to establish the running game and pound the rock early. The strong play of Anonio Garay in the middle and Rivera's likely decision to stack the box and force the Raiders to beat the Chargers through the air will be the key battle to watch early on.

If the Chargers can build a lead of more than ten points and force the Raiders into third and long situations, this game will be over. The strong play of Cason and Jammer on the outside will let the San Diego put eight or nine guys in the box without fear to stop the speedy, powerful, and best player on the Raiders, Darren McFadden.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers, it should be interesting to see who gets the majority of the carries. Mike Tolbert has become the number one running back, but now that he's ailing with an injured hand, will Norv try to give him more of a break by letting Ryan Mathews take more carries? Ideally, the Chargers would like to have both of these guys close to 100% going into next Sunday's game against the Chiefs.

In the passing game, the Chargers should dominate a defense that is 27th in the league in passing yardage given up. Getting Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee playing back at a high level without pulling hamstrings would be a major victory going into the last stretch of the season and hopefully the playoffs. Antonio Gates will once again be a game time decision. The Chargers probably don't need him for this game, but if he practiced this week and didn't do any more damage to his foot, he might as well go. His injury doesn't seem to get worse through use, it just needs time to heal. For the Chargers to have any chance in the post-season, Gates needs to be healthy.

The Raiders are, after a short period of delusion, again, a franchise in turmoil. They still don't have a true NFL quarterback or head coach, which has been a problem for awhile. The Chargers have looked like a team in playoff form these last few weeks, and as long as they aren't looking ahead to the Chiefs next week (and they remember what happened last time against the Raiders...maybe they should watch the video at the top of this to remind themselves), they should win this one easily at home.

Chargers 34, Raiders 10

Chargers Prove they are Elite

The Chargers embarrassed Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts last night in a game that should signal to fans and the NFL, that the team that has gone to the playoffs and dominated the AFC West for years is back on the scene. Will they prove they are even better than those groups who were summarily bumped from the playoffs too early? It depends on some key injuries, but I think so.

The difference of this year's team is the aggressiveness and confidence of the defense. These guys seem to have matured, and they now "get," and believe in Rivera's schemes. The defensive backs aren't giving up big plays, the defensive line is pushing people back, while the linebackers are playing smart, adjusting to the style of each team they face.

Even with the passing game limited with key receivers out or hobbling around in the secondary, the defense and the solid running game pushed through by Mike Tolbert are enough to give the Chargers multiple ways to win games. This is why they are on their way back to the playoffs and the Colts are sliding downward.

Right now, the Chargers are playing with the confidence of a team that is ready to make a run for, and in, the playoffs. The problem? There are still five games left to go and the suddenly stingy Chiefs refused to give any ground this week. Right now, both teams are 1-2 in the division, so if the Chargers beat the Chiefs and lose no other games, and the Chiefs win out aside from losing to San Diego, the teams will be tied in overall record but the Chargers would posses the superior division record, thus breaking the tie for the division title.

The Chargers have the look of a team ready to win out and take this thing, however, we know anything can happen in the NFL. The upcoming game worries me a bit in that the Chargers, even after having lost to the Raiders earlier this season, could come in a bit overconfident after seeing the horrible performance of the Oakland last week. They still don't appear to have a QB and their spirit looked broken after they fell behind just by three points against Miami. I'm sure they'd love to beat the Chargers though just out of spite. San Diego needs to bring their best for the rest of the season. Luckily, while Norv can't seem to start a season well, he's proven he's adept at keeping the guys focused at the end.

The Chargers now have a chance, and that's all that any team should ask for.

Why the Chargers Will Beat the Colts

The Chargers go to Indianapolis Sunday night to play to Colts in a game that has playoff implications for both teams. The Colts, at 6-4 are wondering for the first time in awhile if they will make the playoffs. The Chargers at 5-5, and having won their last three games, are feeling more confident after blowing out the Broncos on Monday Night Football. Both teams face significant injury issues and will be relying on their Hall of Fame bound quarterbacks to pull this one out.

The Colts have an advantage in playing at home as they've been perfect there and the Chargers have been generally horrible on the road this year, but the Chargers have a superior supporting cast that will be the difference in this game.

San Diego's defense, as in last week's match against the Broncos, will be the difference in this game. Corners, Jammer and Cason, are playing at a high level and will be up for this game. The Broncos tried to pick on Cason last week and he responded with several break-ups and an interception. Safeties, Weddle and Oliver, have shown they understand the scheme and are showing excellent teamwork and communication in not allowing big plays.

With Joseph Addai out and a suspect run blocking scheme and commitment to begin with, the Chargers front seven will stifle the Colts' running game, forcing Manning to try and win it with his arm. The Chargers' athletic linebackers and sure tackling corners will limit the short passing game's effectiveness, forcing Peyton to throw the ball deeper, exposing him to the mistakes, interceptions and general lack of efficiency we've seen in the last four weeks. Looking at Peyton's stats, his quarterback rating has fallen dramatically over the last four weeks. Some of this can be attributed to injuries, and some to playing better defenses like the Patriots (and Chargers).

On the other side of the ball, the Colts have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Chargers will take advantage of this and Rivers' efficiency, and methodically move the ball, keeping Peyton off the field. This will further frustrate the Colts, causing Manning to take even more chances. I expect the Chargers to come up with two or three interceptions en route to this victory.

In the passing game, the Colts' defense is stronger, with a lot of the credit going to defensive ends Mathis and Freeney coming off the edge. Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeil has shown he can handle Freeney in the past. We'll see how right tackle Jeromey Clary does with Mathis. In general, the Chargers' pass protection has been extremely solid since the return of McNeil, and they should be able to handle this challenge. If the Chargers do lose this game, it will be because they put themselves in a hole on special teams or with fumbles...or both, forcing Rivers' to make a late comeback with Freeney and Mathis pinning their ears back causing sacks, fumbles and general mayhem. The Chargers showed us last week that they are now a confident and aggressive football team again and I think those major mistakes of the first half of the season are behind them.

A couple other factors will contribute to Sunday's victory for San Diego: Sproles loves the fake stuff. While the little guy may have trouble churning those little legs on the wet and muddy stuff, he thrives on the field turf. Look for him to have an extra spark in the return game, on screens, and sneaky short passes up the middle like last week. He'll have at least one huge play...On the Chargers defense, I noticed something I hadn't seen all year that just might be the harbinger of interesting things to come: the aggressiveness of the defensive line. This group has been in survival mode since the injury and departure of Jamal Williams last year. Last week though, second year player Vaughn Martin and rookie Cam Thomas both had sacks and looked like they were actually having fun out there. Luis Castillo even made a couple of tackles for negative yardage. This group may be realizing their athletic potential and how aggressive they can be. If so, the Chargers can really become a legitimate top defense in the NFL (in accordance with their previously suspect stats).

A victory this week should set San Diego up perfectly to catch the Chiefs, at the same time, put the Indiapolis Mannings'...I mean Colts', season in jeopardy. Both teams are at a crossroads as franchises. The Chargers have attempted to reload with some younger players with great potential that may just be starting to pay off. The Colts may have put too many of their eggs in Manning's basket, with this game being the tipping point to a long frustrating slide downward.

Chargers 27, Colts 17

On Track

As an NFL analyst for ESPN, you would think Keyshawn Johnson would do a little homework while "preparing" his opinions. Last night before the game, he told Charger fans they wouldn't make it this year because they had "several" games to make up to catch the Chiefs, and that was just unrealistic to think things could work out perfectly. Wrong. With a win last night, the Chargers put the Broncos out of their misery (season over) and stayed on track to catch the Chiefs. More importantly, the Chargers are playing at a level that qualifies them for, and makes them relevant in, the playoffs.

Shaun Phillips deserves the MVP award for last night's game. The guy has matured into a versatile and smart player who has emerged as a leader and play maker on this defense. Fans were right to wonder about his character with some of the things he's said and done in the first half of his career. He seems to have taken his past mistakes to heart though and decided he'd rather be great than be a disgruntled punk. His ability to read plays on the fly coupled with his rangy quickness makes him extremely dangerous in the backfield for quarterbacks and running backs on draws and screens. Great game Shaun.

The special teams didn't lose the game this week and I think we discovered one of the major reasons for the poor performance in previous weeks: the injury to Brandon Siler. Back this week, the guy seemed to make every tackle on kickoffs. His big hits provide a spark of aggressiveness that carry over when the defense takes the field.

As I mentioned in my last post, the defense did prove to be the difference in this game, dominating the Broncos after they looking like they hadn't had their coffee yet on the first series. Orton looks good only when everything goes to plan and when the first receiver who is supposed to open actually is. Anyone who thought Orton belonged in the same conversation with Rivers as elite NFL quarterbacks were disabused of that notion by the end of the night.

When I gamed out the season (two posts ago) I originally picked the Colts to win next week's game in Indianapolis, but given the Chargers' confidence and performance and Peyton Manning's horrible game Sunday, this next game looks very good for San Diego. A win at Indy might even get Keyshawn's attention.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The Chargers will try to prove to a national audience and themselves tonight that they belong in the playoff discussion. Some folks and analysts around the league who haven't been paying much attention may have already written them off. A big win could change all that.

The Chargers are the superior team to the Denver Broncos. While both offenses have been moving the ball and scoring points with ease, the Chargers' defense is for real and should prove the difference in this game. Again, like every other week, San Diego could mess this one up with horrible special teams play and some untimely fumbles.

On defense, I'm looking for Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer, along with Eric Weddle and Paul Oliver, to show they are gelling as a unit and ready for prime time. Many have criticized AJ for some first-round draft picks that haven't panned out, like Buster Davis, Larry English (so far!) and Ryan Mathews (so far!), but Cason is not one of them. In his first year as a starter at corner, he's been extremely solid. If anyone remembers the painful growing pains of Quentin Jammer, Cason seems like a child prodigy by comparison. The Broncos will be able to move the ball and score some points, but also look for this unit to get a couple of key interceptions.

The return of Larry English and Brandon Siler should help the secondary as the linebacking corps will have more fresh legs rushing the passer. English has to be motivated to prove he's not a first-round bust and Siler is fantastic on the sneaky quick blitz up the middle.

On offense, it doesn't look like Ryan Mathews will go. That's fine. Tolbert is capable and should have a good game against a weak and depleted Broncos' defense. Norv would be wise to give Mathews another week or two off to let him get fully healthy as he seems to keep aggravating the same injury.

In the passing game, I will be surprised if Gates makes it on the field this week. He simply needs more time to heal the tear in his foot. On the upside, Malcolm Floyd appears ready to go and should have a big game against a suspect Broncos' secondary. Look for Patrick Crayton and Seyi Ajirotutu to continue getting more and more comfortable with Rivers.

Most analysts seem to be predicting an high flying shootout that comes down to the end. I think the Chargers will be the only ones flying high as their defense will stifle Orton and company.

Chargers 38, Broncos 17

How the Chargers Will Make the Playoffs

After winning the last two games against a couple of the tougher teams on their schedule, the Chargers, even after an atrocious start, have set themselves up to make the playoffs. At 4-5, with a bunch of injured players coming back after the bye week, one could even make the case for the Chargers to be the favorite (again) to win the division. Here's the breakdown of predictions:

Denver at SD: W

SD at Indianapolis: L (although the Chargers could very likely win this one)

Kansas City at SD: W

Oakland at SD: W

San Francisco at SD: W

SD at Cincinnati: W

SD at Denver: W

The last two on the road at Cincinnati and Denver are the scariest, but the Chargers are better, surging, and should win these games. This would put San Diego at 10-6 for the season. Now let's take a look at current division leader Kansas City:

KC at Denver: W (for KC)

Arizona at KC: W

KC at Seattle: L

Denver at KC: W

KC at SD: L

KC at St. Louis L

Tennessee at KC: L

Oakland at KC: W

This puts the Chiefs at 9-7 and one game behind the Chargers for the division. This is precarious for the Chargers because if the the Chiefs step up and win even one game they're not "supposed to," this leaves the division tied, and the playoff decision will fall to tiebreaker scenarios.

Let's take a look at the Raiders (5-4), who also lead the Chargers in the division:

Oakland at Pittsburgh: L (for Oakland)

Miami at Oakland: W

Oakland at SD: L

Oakland at Jacksonville: L

Denver at Oakland: W

Indianapolis at Oakland: L

Oakland at KC: L

This puts the Raiders at 7-9 and out of playoff contention. Although they just beat the Chiefs last week and seem to be a team on the upswing at this point in the season, their schedule is much tougher than KC's or the Chargers' going forward.

Although there are too many variables, and the Chargers should have never put themselves in this hole to begin with, most sober analysts would have to make them the favorite to return to the playoffs. However, it will be unlikely that they will earn a buy, making it more likely that the road forward in the playoffs. May mean a game against an AFC South team at home, then, if they can survive, the road to the Super Bowl would go on the road through Pittsburgh, Indy, New York or New England. If the rest of the season does work out as I've predicted, we'll no doubt hear proclamations of the Chargers being the team "nobody wants to face" after having won seven of their last eight. Deja vu?

Let's just hope they can get in.